Cribbage Strategy: Play Smarter, Peg More

Luck decides any single hand of cribbage, but over a season of games the better player wins clearly more often. Nearly all of that edge comes from two decisions you make every hand: which two cards to throw in the crib, and which card to play during pegging. Here is how good players think about both, in plain terms. If you need a refresher on scoring first, see the cribbage rules and counting table.

1. The Discard: Think in Averages

You see six cards but don't know the starter. A hand that's worth 6 points before the cut might average 8 once you consider all 46 cards that could turn up, while another 6-point hand stays close to 6. Experienced players favor hands that many starters can improve:

• Fives are gold. Sixteen of the 52 cards count 10, so a 5 makes fifteen with almost a third of the deck.
• Connected cards grow. Holding 6-7-8 means a 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 starter adds a run, a pair, or both.
• Pairs with fifteens like 7-8-8 or 6-9-9 are reliable earners.
• Gaps hurt. A hand like 2-6-10-K has nothing for most starters to hook onto.

Try it: the Hint button in our game checks all 15 ways to discard and shows the average points your kept cards will score once the starter is turned. It's a quick way to build an instinct for good keeps.

2. Whose Crib Is It?

The crib changes everything. When it's your crib, the two cards you throw are points for you, so you can afford to split a hand to put a pair, a 5, or two cards that make fifteen (like 7-8 or 4-J) into it. When it's your opponent's crib, throw cards that are far apart and unlikely to combine:

The non-dealer's dilemma is real: sometimes the best hand to keep means giving the dealer something good. Our Hard computer weighs this using a table of what every pair of cards is worth in a crib on average, and will sometimes keep a slightly weaker hand to avoid feeding your crib. Click Why? after its discard to see when that happened.

3. Pegging: The Golden Rules

Pegging points are smaller than hand points, but they add up to about a fifth of all scoring, and they are where careful play shows most.

• Lead a card under 5. Your opponent can't make fifteen with one card on top of a 4 or lower. A 4 is the classic safe lead.
• Never lead a 5. Any ten-card answers it for fifteen-two.
• Avoid leaving the count at 5 or 21. A ten-card makes 15 or 31 for your opponent. Counts of 11 (a 4 for fifteen) are less dangerous than you'd think, since fewer cards answer.
• Be careful with cards that touch. If the last card was a 6 and you play a 7, your opponent may finish a run with a 5 or an 8.
• Lead from a pair. If you hold two 4s and lead one, and your opponent pairs it for 2, you answer with the third for 6.
• Save low cards for the end. When the count is in the high 20s, an ace or a 2 lets you squeeze in a last card for the Go, or even make 31.

4. Take the Sure Points

If you can make 15 or 31, or pair a card, it is usually right to take it. The exception is when doing so sets your opponent up for something bigger: pairing a 7 at a count of 14 gives them a chance at three of a kind for 6 if they hold the last 7. Look one card ahead. Our Hard computer does this by imagining many possible hands you might hold, using only cards it hasn't seen, and playing the rest of the count out for each one.

5. Count What's Been Played

You know your six cards, the starter and every card on the table. If three 9s are already out, a 9 is a safe card to play because it's very hard to pair. Keeping track also helps in the show: if your opponent claims a run with a card you know was played, you'll catch it.

6. Play the Board

Near the end of a game, the score should change how you play. On average, the non-dealer scores about 10 points per hand (pegging plus hand) and the dealer about 16 (including the crib). Use that as a yardstick:

• When you need only a few points to go out, especially as the non-dealer who counts first, keep cards that score even with a poor starter, and peg for every point.
• When your opponent is close and you're the dealer, play defensively in pegging: lead low, avoid giving them a pair or a fifteen, and hold cards that stop them from getting the Go.
• When you're far behind, keep hands with the highest possible ceiling and hope the starter cooperates.

7. Learn by Watching the Count

The fastest way to improve is to see where points come from. During the show, tap Show Me Step by Step and watch which cards light up for each fifteen, pair and run. When you feel confident, turn on Count my own hands and see whether the computer catches you missing anything. If you enjoy thinking a few cards ahead, try Hearts, which rewards the same kind of card counting.